The Downballot Data Report 2025
Table of Contents
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Raw Data Tables
The Downballot Subscribe to our newsletter Follow us on Bluesky
Special Election 2024 Presidential 2020 Presidential
Date State District Held By Winner D %age R %age Margin Harris Trump Margin Margin Dif. Biden Trump Margin Margin Dif.
2-Dec-25 TN TN-07 (R) 38% 60% -22% 41% 56% -15%
4-Nov-25 MN SD-29 (R) (R) 38% 62% -25% 33% 65% -32% 7% 34% 63% -29% 4%
4-Nov-25 MN SD-47 (D) (D) 62% 38% 23% 60% 38% 22% 2% 60% 38% 22% 1%
4-Nov-25 MS SD-01 (R) (R) 28% 72% -44% 23% 75% -52% 8% 24% 75% -51% 7%
4-Nov-25 MS SD-02 (R) (D) ✓ 63% 37% 26% 52% 45% 7% 19% 54% 44% 9% 16%
4-Nov-25 MS SD-11 (D) (D) 67% 33% 34% 56% 42% 14% 20% 58% 40% 18% 16%
4-Nov-25 MS SD-19 (R) (R) 47% 53% -6% 41% 56% -15% 9% 39% 60% -21% 15%
4-Nov-25 MS SD-44 (R) (R) 32% 68% -36% 22% 77% -55% 19% 23% 76% -53% 18%
4-Nov-25 MS SD-45 (R) (D) ✓ 71% 29% 43% 61% 37% 24% 19% 64% 34% 31% 12%
4-Nov-25 MS HD-22 (R) (D) ✓ 53% 47% 6% 48% 51% -3% 8% 54% 45% 9% -4%
4-Nov-25 NH HD-Coos-05 (R) (R) 50% 50% -1% 48% 52% -4% 3% 53% 46% 7% -8%
4-Nov-25 NJ SD-35 (D) (D) 72% 28% 44% 54% 42% 12% 32% 70% 29% 41% 3%
4-Nov-25 NY AD-115 (D) (D) 53% 47% 6% 49% 50% -1% 8% 52% 46% 6% 1%
4-Nov-25 WA SD-05 (D) (D) 56% 44% 13% 58% 39% 19% -6% 58% 39% 19% -6%
4-Nov-25 WA SD-26 (D) (D) 53% 47% 5% 53% 44% 10% -4% 51% 45% 6% -1%
4-Nov-25 WA HD-41-1 (D) (D) 71% 29% 42% 71% 26% 45% -3% 72% 25% 46% -4%
4-Nov-25 WA HD-48-1 (D) (D) 70% 30% 40% 71% 26% 45% -5% 72% 25% 48% -7%
28-Oct-25 AL HD-12 (R) (R) 13% 87% -74% 10% 89% -79% 4% 12% 87% -75% 1%
23-Sep-25 AZ AZ-07 (D) (D) 69% 29% 40% 60% 38% 22% 17% 66% 33% 33% 7%
23-Sep-25 GA SD-21 (R) (R) 39% 61% -23% 33% 67% -34% 11% 33% 65% -32% 9%
16-Sep-25 MN HD-34B (D) (D) 61% 39% 22% 63% 35% 28% -6% 62% 35% 27% -5%
9-Sep-25 VA VA-11 (D) (D) 75% 25% 50% 66% 31% 34% 16% 70% 29% 41% 9%
2-Sep-25 FL SD-15 (D) (D) 73% 27% 45% 61% 38% 23% 22% 66% 33% 33% 12%
2-Sep-25 FL HD-40 (D) (D) 75% 25% 50% 67% 32% 35% 15% 71% 28% 42% 8%
26-Aug-25 AL HD-11 (R) (R) 11% 88% -77% 9% 91% -82% 5% 10% 89% -79% 2%
26-Aug-25 CA AD-63 (R) (R) 47% 53% -7% 42% 55% -13% 6% 46% 52% -6% -1%
26-Aug-25 IA SD-01 (R) (D) ✓ 55% 45% 10% 44% 55% -12% 22% 48% 50% -3% 13%
5-Aug-25 DE HD-20 (D) (D) 51% 49% 1% 54% 45% 9% -7% 53% 46% 7% -6%
5-Aug-25 RI SD-04 (D) (D) 83% 16% 67% 55% 44% 11% 56% 58% 40% 17% 49%
24-Jun-25 AL SD-05 (R) (R) 14% 86% -72% 13% 86% -74% 1% 17% 82% -65% -7%
24-Jun-25 NH HD-Strafford-12 (D) (D) 55% 45% 11% 55% 44% 12% -1% 56% 42% 14% -3%
10-Jun-25 FL SD-19 (R) (R) 46% 54% -9% 40% 59% -20% 11% 42% 57% -15% 6%
10-Jun-25 FL HD-03 (R) (R) 33% 67% -34% 22% 77% -55% 21% 23% 75% -51% 17%
10-Jun-25 FL HD-32 (R) (R) 45% 55% -11% 39% 59% -20% 9% 41% 57% -16% 6%
10-Jun-25 MA HD-Bristol-03 (D) (D) 50% 50% 0% 52% 46% 6% -5% 57% 41% 17% -16%
10-Jun-25 OK HD-71 (D) (D) 85% 15% 69% 58% 39% 19% 50% 55% 42% 14% 56%
10-Jun-25 OK HD-74 (R) (R) 35% 65% -29% 28% 70% -42% 13% 27% 70% -43% 14%
3-Jun-25 SC HD-50 (D) (D) 71% 29% 41% 51% 46% 5% 36% 57% 42% 16% 25%
20-May-25 NY SD-22 (D) (D) 67% 32% 35% 22% 77% -55% 90% 29% 70% -41% 76%
13-May-25 MA HD-Essex-06 (D) (D) 73% 26% 47% 66% 32% 35% 13% 68% 30% 39% 9%
13-May-25 OK SD-08 (R) (R) 30% 62% -32% 24% 75% -51% 19% 26% 72% -47% 15%
29-Apr-25 IA HD-78 (D) (D) 79% 21% 58% 66% 33% 33% 26% 68% 30% 38% 20%
29-Apr-25 MN SD-06 (R) (R) 40% 60% -21% 36% 63% -27% 6% 37% 59% -22% 2%
22-Apr-25 CT HD-113 (R) (R) 47% 53% -5% 44% 55% -11% 6% 46% 53% -7% 2%
1-Apr-25 FL FL-01 (R) (R) 42% 57% -15% 31% 68% -37% 23% 33% 65% -32% 18%
1-Apr-25 FL FL-06 (R) (R) 43% 57% -14% 35% 65% -30% 16% 38% 61% -24% 10%
25-Mar-25 PA SD-36 (R) (D) ✓ 50% 49% 1% 42% 57% -15% 16% 41% 58% -17% 17%
25-Mar-25 PA HD-35 (D) (D) 63% 35% 28% 58% 42% 16% 13% 58% 41% 16% 12%
11-Mar-25 IA HD-100 (R) (R) 48% 52% -3% 36% 62% -27% 24% 40% 58% -19% 15%
11-Mar-25 MN HD-40B (D) (D) 70% 30% 40% 68% 30% 39% 2% 67% 30% 37% 3%
25-Feb-25 CT SD-21 (R) (R) 47% 53% -7% 49% 50% -1% -6% 51% 48% 4% -11%
25-Feb-25 CT HD-40 (D) (D) 69% 31% 38% 60% 38% 22% 16% 60% 37% 24% 14%
25-Feb-25 ME HD-24 (D) (D) 72% 28% 43% 61% 36% 25% 18% 60% 35% 25% 19%
15-Feb-25 DE SD-01 (D) (D) 77% 21% 56% 73% 26% 47% 10% 74% 25% 49% 8%
15-Feb-25 DE SD-05 (D) (D) 65% 35% 30% 65% 33% 32% -2% 67% 32% 35% -5%
28-Jan-25 IA SD-35 (R) (D) ✓ 52% 48% 4% 39% 60% -21% 25% 39% 60% -21% 25%
28-Jan-25 MN SD-60 (D) (D) 91% 9% 82% 83% 14% 69% 14% 85% 12% 73% 9%
7-Jan-25 VA SD-10 (R) (R) 42% 58% -16% 36% 63% -27% 11% 37% 61% -25% 9%
The Downballot Subscribe to our newsletter Follow us on Bluesky
Special Election 2024 Presidential 2020 Presidential
Date State District Held By Winner D %age R %age Margin Harris Trump Margin Margin Dif. Biden Trump Margin Margin Dif.
7-Jan-25 VA SD-32 (D) (D) 62% 38% 24% 59% 38% 22% 2% 67% 32% 35% -11%
7-Jan-25 VA HD-26 (D) (D) 62% 38% 25% 59% 37% 22% 3% 67% 32% 35% -10%
2025 Avg. 13.1% 2025 Avg. 8.6%
(59 races) (59 races)
All cycles: 2017-18; 2019-20; 2021-22; 2023-24; 2025-26
"✓" indicates a change in party control.
* Not included in averages. Averages only include races where the combined Democratic and Republican share of the vote is 90% or greater.
Federal elections shaded in gold. All others are state legislative elections.
Sources: The Downballot, Dave's Redistricting App, VEST
The Downballot
Date State District Reason
Non-Qualifying
28-Jan-25 MN HD-40B Canceled and rescheduled for 11-Mar-25
15-Feb-25 LA SD-14
Election resolved in all-party primary with
multiple (D) candidates
15-Feb-25 LA SD-23
Election resolved in all-party primary with
multiple (R) candidates
25-Feb-25 CA AD-32
Election resolved in all-party primary with
multiple (R) candidates
25-Feb-25 CA SD-36
Election resolved in all-party primary with
multiple (D) & (R) candidates
14-Mar-25 LA HD-45
Election canceled after only one candidate
filed
25-Mar-25 MS HD-23 Officially nonpartisan election
25-Mar-25 MS HD-82 Officially nonpartisan election
25-Mar-25 SC HD-113 No (R) candidate
15-Apr-25 MS SD-18 Officially nonpartisan election
3-May-25 LA HD-67
Election resolved in all-party primary with
multiple (D) candidates
9-Sep-25 OK HD-97 Election canceled after no (R) filed
4-Nov-25 MS HD-16 No (R) candidate
4-Nov-25 MS HD-26 Officially nonpartisan election
4-Nov-25 MS HD-36 No (R) candidate
4-Nov-25 MS HD-39 No (D) candidate
4-Nov-25 MS HD-41 No (R) candidate
4-Nov-25 MS SD-10 No (D) candidate
4-Nov-25 MS SD-24 Officially nonpartisan election
4-Nov-25 MS SD-26 Officially nonpartisan election
4-Nov-25 MS SD-34 No (R) candidate
4-Nov-25 MS SD-41 No (D) candidate
4-Nov-25 MS SD-42 No (D) candidate
4-Nov-25 WA HD-33-1 No (R) candidate
4-Nov-25 WA HD-34-1 No (R) candidate
4-Nov-25 WA SD-33 No (R) candidate
4-Nov-25 WA SD-34 No (R) candidate
4-Nov-25 WA SD-48 No (R) candidate
4-Nov-25 GA HD-106 No (R) candidate
23-Dec-25 SC HD-21 No (D) candidate
23-Dec-25 SC SD-12 No (D) candidate
To Be Determined
18-Nov-25 GA SD-35 All-party race; runoff 16-Dec-25 if needed
9-Dec-25 GA HD-23 All-party race; runoff 6-Jan-26 if needed
The Downballot
Date State District Winner Type
TOTAL FLIPS TO DEMOCRATS (24)
4-Nov-25 MS SD-02 Theresa Gillespie Isom Special
4-Nov-25 MS SD-45 Johnny DuPree Special
4-Nov-25 MS HD-22 Justin Crosby Special
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-02 Maureen Rowan Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-08 Anthongy Angelozzi Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Vincent Kearney Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Andrew Macurdy Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-25 Marisa Sweeney Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-22 Elizabeth Guzman Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-30 John McAuliff Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-41 Lily Franklin Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-57 May Nivar Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-64 Stacey Carroll Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-66 Nicole Cole Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-69 Mark Downey Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-71 Jessica Anderson Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-73 Leslie Mehta Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-75 Lindsey Dougherty Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-82 Kimberly Adams Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-86 Virgil Thornton Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-89 Karen Robins Carnegie Regular
26-Aug-25 IA SD-01 Catelin Drey Special
25-Mar-25 PA SD-36 James Malone Special
28-Jan-25 IA SD-35 Mike Zimmer Special
TOTAL FLIPS TO REPUBLICANS (0)
Federal elections shaded in gold. All others are state legislative elections.
The Downballot @the-downballot.com on Bluesky
Party Status Most Recent Election 2024 Presidential 2020 Presidential
Date State District Incumbent Old New Year D % R % Margin Harris Trump Margin Biden Trump Margin
25-Sep-25 ME HD-112 Ed Crockett (D) (I) 2024 72% 28% 43% 69% 28% 41%
5-Sep-25 OR HD-32 Cyrus Javadi (R) (D) 2024 48% 52% -4% 51% 46% 5%
24-Jun-25 ME SD-18 Rick Bennett (R) (I) 2024 35% 65% -29% 43% 54% -10%
30-May-25 KY SD-18 Robin Webb (D) (R) 2022 (unopposed) 27% 72% -45%
24-Apr-25 FL SD-37 Jason Pizzo (D) (I) 2024 58% 42% 16% 56% 43% 13%
7-Mar-25 UT SD-11 Daniel Thatcher (R) (I) 2022 (unopposed) 31% 63% -32%
28-Dec-24 FL HD-101 Hillary Cassel (D) (R) 2024 (unopposed) 57% 43% 14%
9-Dec-24 FL HD-64 Susan Valdes (D) (R) 2024 53% 47% 7% 57% 42% 16%
Congressional seats shaded in gold. All others are legislative seats.
All our elections data can be found at the-downballot.com/data
Includes complete D vs. R special elections data since 2017
Citation guide:
Journalists
Please cite us by name, The Downballot, and website, the-downballot.com, including a link in online material
Academics
Authors: Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Nir
The Downballot 2025-26 cycle D-vs.-R special elections vs. presidential results
Date: 2024
Publisher: The Downballot
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/
-orthe-downballot.com
Corresponding author: davidnir@the-downballot.com
The Downballot
Date State District Winner Type
TOTAL FLIPS TO DEMOCRATS (24)
4-Nov-25 MS SD-02 Theresa Gillespie Isom Special
4-Nov-25 MS SD-45 Johnny DuPree Special
4-Nov-25 MS HD-22 Justin Crosby Special
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-02 Maureen Rowan Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-08 Anthongy Angelozzi Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Vincent Kearney Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Andrew Macurdy Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-25 Marisa Sweeney Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-22 Elizabeth Guzman Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-30 John McAuliff Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-41 Lily Franklin Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-57 May Nivar Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-64 Stacey Carroll Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-66 Nicole Cole Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-69 Mark Downey Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-71 Jessica Anderson Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-73 Leslie Mehta Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-75 Lindsey Dougherty Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-82 Kimberly Adams Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-86 Virgil Thornton Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-89 Karen Robins Carnegie Regular
26-Aug-25 IA SD-01 Catelin Drey Special
25-Mar-25 PA SD-36 James Malone Special
28-Jan-25 IA SD-35 Mike Zimmer Special
TOTAL FLIPS TO REPUBLICANS (0)
Federal elections shaded in gold. All others are state legislative elections.
The Downballot @the-downballot.com on Bluesky
Party Status Most Recent Election 2024 Presidential 2020 Presidential
Date State District Incumbent Old New Year D % R % Margin Harris Trump Margin Biden Trump Margin
25-Sep-25 ME HD-112 Ed Crockett (D) (I) 2024 72% 28% 43% 69% 28% 41%
5-Sep-25 OR HD-32 Cyrus Javadi (R) (D) 2024 48% 52% -4% 51% 46% 5%
24-Jun-25 ME SD-18 Rick Bennett (R) (I) 2024 35% 65% -29% 43% 54% -10%
30-May-25 KY SD-18 Robin Webb (D) (R) 2022 (unopposed) 27% 72% -45%
24-Apr-25 FL SD-37 Jason Pizzo (D) (I) 2024 58% 42% 16% 56% 43% 13%
7-Mar-25 UT SD-11 Daniel Thatcher (R) (I) 2022 (unopposed) 31% 63% -32%
28-Dec-24 FL HD-101 Hillary Cassel (D) (R) 2024 (unopposed) 57% 43% 14%
9-Dec-24 FL HD-64 Susan Valdes (D) (R) 2024 53% 47% 7% 57% 42% 16%
Congressional seats shaded in gold. All others are legislative seats.
All our elections data can be found at the-downballot.com/data
Includes complete D vs. R special elections data since 2017
Citation guide:
Journalists
Please cite us by name, The Downballot, and website, the-downballot.com, including a link in online material
Academics
Authors: Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Nir
The Downballot 2025-26 cycle D-vs.-R special elections vs. presidential results
Date: 2024
Publisher: The Downballot
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/
-orthe-downballot.com
Corresponding author: davidnir@the-downballot.com
(End of Raw Data Tables)
The Downballot
Date State District Winner Type
TOTAL FLIPS TO DEMOCRATS (24)
4-Nov-25 MS SD-02 Theresa Gillespie Isom Special
4-Nov-25 MS SD-45 Johnny DuPree Special
4-Nov-25 MS HD-22 Justin Crosby Special
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-02 Maureen Rowan Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-08 Anthongy Angelozzi Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Vincent Kearney Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Andrew Macurdy Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-25 Marisa Sweeney Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-22 Elizabeth Guzman Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-30 John McAuliff Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-41 Lily Franklin Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-57 May Nivar Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-64 Stacey Carroll Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-66 Nicole Cole Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-69 Mark Downey Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-71 Jessica Anderson Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-73 Leslie Mehta Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-75 Lindsey Dougherty Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-82 Kimberly Adams Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-86 Virgil Thornton Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-89 Karen Robins Carnegie Regular
26-Aug-25 IA SD-01 Catelin Drey Special
25-Mar-25 PA SD-36 James Malone Special
28-Jan-25 IA SD-35 Mike Zimmer Special
TOTAL FLIPS TO REPUBLICANS (0)
Federal elections shaded in gold. All others are state legislative elections.
The Downballot @the-downballot.com on Bluesky
Party Status Most Recent Election 2024 Presidential 2020 Presidential
Date State District Incumbent Old New Year D % R % Margin Harris Trump Margin Biden Trump Margin
25-Sep-25 ME HD-112 Ed Crockett (D) (I) 2024 72% 28% 43% 69% 28% 41%
5-Sep-25 OR HD-32 Cyrus Javadi (R) (D) 2024 48% 52% -4% 51% 46% 5%
24-Jun-25 ME SD-18 Rick Bennett (R) (I) 2024 35% 65% -29% 43% 54% -10%
30-May-25 KY SD-18 Robin Webb (D) (R) 2022 (unopposed) 27% 72% -45%
24-Apr-25 FL SD-37 Jason Pizzo (D) (I) 2024 58% 42% 16% 56% 43% 13%
7-Mar-25 UT SD-11 Daniel Thatcher (R) (I) 2022 (unopposed) 31% 63% -32%
28-Dec-24 FL HD-101 Hillary Cassel (D) (R) 2024 (unopposed) 57% 43% 14%
9-Dec-24 FL HD-64 Susan Valdes (D) (R) 2024 53% 47% 7% 57% 42% 16%
Congressional seats shaded in gold. All others are legislative seats.
All our elections data can be found at the-downballot.com/data
Includes complete D vs. R special elections data since 2017
Citation guide:
Journalists
Please cite us by name, The Downballot, and website, the-downballot.com, including a link in online material
Academics
Authors: Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Nir
The Downballot 2025-26 cycle D-vs.-R special elections vs. presidential results
Date: 2024
Publisher: The Downballot
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/
-orthe-downballot.com
Corresponding author: davidnir@the-downballot.comThe Downballot
Date State District Winner Type
TOTAL FLIPS TO DEMOCRATS (24)
4-Nov-25 MS SD-02 Theresa Gillespie Isom Special
4-Nov-25 MS SD-45 Johnny DuPree Special
4-Nov-25 MS HD-22 Justin Crosby Special
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-02 Maureen Rowan Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-08 Anthongy Angelozzi Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Vincent Kearney Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Andrew Macurdy Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-25 Marisa Sweeney Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-22 Elizabeth Guzman Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-30 John McAuliff Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-41 Lily Franklin Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-57 May Nivar Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-64 Stacey Carroll Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-66 Nicole Cole Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-69 Mark Downey Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-71 Jessica Anderson Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-73 Leslie Mehta Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-75 Lindsey Dougherty Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-82 Kimberly Adams Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-86 Virgil Thornton Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-89 Karen Robins Carnegie Regular
26-Aug-25 IA SD-01 Catelin Drey Special
25-Mar-25 PA SD-36 James Malone Special
28-Jan-25 IA SD-35 Mike Zimmer Special
TOTAL FLIPS TO REPUBLICANS (0)
Federal elections shaded in gold. All others are state legislative elections.
The Downballot @the-downballot.com on Bluesky
Party Status Most Recent Election 2024 Presidential 2020 Presidential
Date State District Incumbent Old New Year D % R % Margin Harris Trump Margin Biden Trump Margin
25-Sep-25 ME HD-112 Ed Crockett (D) (I) 2024 72% 28% 43% 69% 28% 41%
5-Sep-25 OR HD-32 Cyrus Javadi (R) (D) 2024 48% 52% -4% 51% 46% 5%
24-Jun-25 ME SD-18 Rick Bennett (R) (I) 2024 35% 65% -29% 43% 54% -10%
30-May-25 KY SD-18 Robin Webb (D) (R) 2022 (unopposed) 27% 72% -45%
24-Apr-25 FL SD-37 Jason Pizzo (D) (I) 2024 58% 42% 16% 56% 43% 13%
7-Mar-25 UT SD-11 Daniel Thatcher (R) (I) 2022 (unopposed) 31% 63% -32%
28-Dec-24 FL HD-101 Hillary Cassel (D) (R) 2024 (unopposed) 57% 43% 14%
9-Dec-24 FL HD-64 Susan Valdes (D) (R) 2024 53% 47% 7% 57% 42% 16%
Congressional seats shaded in gold. All others are legislative seats.
All our elections data can be found at the-downballot.com/data
Includes complete D vs. R special elections data since 2017
Citation guide:
Journalists
Please cite us by name, The Downballot, and website, the-downballot.com, including a link in online material
Academics
Authors: Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Nir
The Downballot 2025-26 cycle D-vs.-R special elections vs. presidential results
Date: 2024
Publisher: The Downballot
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/
-orthe-downballot.com
Corresponding author: davidnir@the-downballot.com
---
The Downballot
Date State District Winner Type
TOTAL FLIPS TO DEMOCRATS (24)
4-Nov-25 MS SD-02 Theresa Gillespie Isom Special
4-Nov-25 MS SD-45 Johnny DuPree Special
4-Nov-25 MS HD-22 Justin Crosby Special
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-02 Maureen Rowan Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-08 Anthongy Angelozzi Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Vincent Kearney Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-21 Andrew Macurdy Regular
4-Nov-25 NJ AD-25 Marisa Sweeney Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-22 Elizabeth Guzman Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-30 John McAuliff Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-41 Lily Franklin Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-57 May Nivar Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-64 Stacey Carroll Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-66 Nicole Cole Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-69 Mark Downey Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-71 Jessica Anderson Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-73 Leslie Mehta Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-75 Lindsey Dougherty Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-82 Kimberly Adams Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-86 Virgil Thornton Regular
4-Nov-25 VA HD-89 Karen Robins Carnegie Regular
26-Aug-25 IA SD-01 Catelin Drey Special
25-Mar-25 PA SD-36 James Malone Special
28-Jan-25 IA SD-35 Mike Zimmer Special
TOTAL FLIPS TO REPUBLICANS (0)
Federal elections shaded in gold. All others are state legislative elections.
The Downballot @the-downballot.com on Bluesky
Party Status Most Recent Election 2024 Presidential 2020 Presidential
Date State District Incumbent Old New Year D % R % Margin Harris Trump Margin Biden Trump Margin
25-Sep-25 ME HD-112 Ed Crockett (D) (I) 2024 72% 28% 43% 69% 28% 41%
5-Sep-25 OR HD-32 Cyrus Javadi (R) (D) 2024 48% 52% -4% 51% 46% 5%
24-Jun-25 ME SD-18 Rick Bennett (R) (I) 2024 35% 65% -29% 43% 54% -10%
30-May-25 KY SD-18 Robin Webb (D) (R) 2022 (unopposed) 27% 72% -45%
24-Apr-25 FL SD-37 Jason Pizzo (D) (I) 2024 58% 42% 16% 56% 43% 13%
7-Mar-25 UT SD-11 Daniel Thatcher (R) (I) 2022 (unopposed) 31% 63% -32%
28-Dec-24 FL HD-101 Hillary Cassel (D) (R) 2024 (unopposed) 57% 43% 14%
9-Dec-24 FL HD-64 Susan Valdes (D) (R) 2024 53% 47% 7% 57% 42% 16%
Congressional seats shaded in gold. All others are legislative seats.
All our elections data can be found at the-downballot.com/data
Includes complete D vs. R special elections data since 2017
Citation guide:
Journalists
Please cite us by name, The Downballot, and website, the-downballot.com, including a link in online material
Academics
Authors: Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Nir
The Downballot 2025-26 cycle D-vs.-R special elections vs. presidential results
Date: 2024
Publisher: The Downballot
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/
-orthe-downballot.com
Corresponding author: davidnir@the-downballot.com---
The Downballot Bluesky Snapshot
Date State District Incumbent Old New Year D % R % Margin Harris Trump Margin Biden Trump Margin
25-Sep-25 ME HD-112 Ed Crockett (D) (I) 2024 72% 28% 43% 69% 28% 41%
5-Sep-25 OR HD-32 Cyrus Javadi (R) (D) 2024 48% 52% -4% 51% 46% 5%
24-Jun-25 ME SD-18 Rick Bennett (R) (I) 2024 35% 65% -29% 43% 54% -10%
30-May-25 KY SD-18 Robin Webb (D) (R) 2022 (unopposed) 27% 72% -45%
24-Apr-25 FL SD-37 Jason Pizzo (D) (I) 2024 58% 42% 16% 56% 43% 13%
7-Mar-25 UT SD-11 Daniel Thatcher (R) (I) 2022 (unopposed) 31% 63% -32%
28-Dec-24 FL HD-101 Hillary Cassel (D) (R) 2024 (unopposed) 57% 43% 14%
9-Dec-24 FL HD-64 Susan Valdes (D) (R) 2024 53% 47% 7% 57% 42% 16%
Congressional seats shaded in gold. All others are legislative seats.
All our elections data can be found at the-downballot.com/data
Includes complete D vs. R special elections data since 2017