RBC Heritage Golf Stats and Wave Analysis 2025 Projections
Table of Contents
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Top 5 Rankings
frl win top_5 top_10 top_20 make_cut top_20 Wave Rank
First Round Leader Win Top 5 Top 10 Top 20 Make Cut Odds Change (Since Mon.)
Overall Model Score S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S
Stats Course History Recent Form
Weighted Proximities SG OTT Less Than Driver
Good Drive % Less Than Driver No Easy Approach
SG Approach Small Greens GIR % Difficult GIR
SG ARG No Difficult ARG
ARG Proximity
SG Putting Overseed/Be
rmuda
SG Ball Striking Short Courses
SG Total Strong Fields L1Y
SG OTT Difficult OTT
Par 3 Scoring Difficult
SG Approach L18M
Scrambling L6M No Difficult Best Odds Top 20 100.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 10.0% 13.0% 7.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 13.0% 9.0%
AM Scottie Scheffler 1 900 457 -105 -185 -294 25.77% 1000 1 1 2 1 1 12 1 1 21 2 49 1 1 1 2 1 1 AM Russell Henley 2 3000 2800 500 230 -110 -47.62% 976 2 4 3 9 13 1 18 8 6 1 8 8 10 17 1 12 53 PM Collin Morikawa 3 2200 900 260 120 -222 0.00% 970 3 6 1 32 4 2 14 53 10 11 51 7 2 2 5 6 19
AM Corey Conners 4 3000 2800 500 230 -110 43.48% 909 5 11 7 26 5 13 24 2 55 55 61 3 8 3 14 4 35 AM Patrick Cantlay 5 2500 1800 400 185 -140 0.00% 856 16 2 13 41 26 25 17 45 16 15 16 15 11 20 40 22 52 AM Bud Cauley 6 6000 8000 900 550 210 0.00% 850 8 23 4 27 22 14 34 6 17 13 46 29 12 31 15 16 14 AM Sepp Straka 7 4000 4500 800 350 140 0.00% 835 6 24 9 8 14 4 8 11 66 42 40 6 24 23 6 7 47 AM Justin Thomas 8 3000 2541 450 200 -125 42.86% 822 15 5 19 2 59 65 2 45 1 3 50 13 18 35 24 14 29
AM Viktor Hovland 9 4000 3874 800 350 125 -6.67% 802 7 18 21 5 15 6 9 24 67 58 37 20 20 9 45 9 36
AM Shane Lowry 10 4000 3500 600 265 100 -97.62% 798 4 39 5 17 11 11 6 4 43 28 66 2 15 11 37 2 2 PM Brian Harman 11 6500 8000 800 550 210 -3.23% 790 9 9 30 12 12 19 19 18 34 29 24 15 50 32 25 18 24
PM Aaron Rai 12 4500 4500 800 333 130 23.91% 787 17 12 17 52 6 10 13 13 32 16 59 3 23 14 65 25 55 PM Ludvig Aberg 13 2800 1800 400 165 -161 21.27% 774 11 8 32 46 9 38 7 9 65 62 36 10 6 4 9 20 38
PM Daniel Berger 14 4000 5000 900 360 150 0.00% 772 30 7 8 68 33 49 27 29 25 34 55 49 9 38 39 21 12 AM Lucas Glover 14 7000 9000 1600 600 210 0.00% 772 12 33 6 15 36 5 23 34 46 21 65 5 57 30 41 11 6
PM Michael Kim 16 6000 9166 1200 500 205 -8.20% 720 14 32 16 13 52 35 16 19 19 38 19 43 16 34 47 25 4 AM Si Woo Kim 17 6600 9601 1400 550 225 -12.31% 717 13 28 22 28 16 16 20 48 31 8 71 12 25 19 18 16 45 PM Xander Schauffele 18 2800 1730 375 165 -141 71.95% 699 10 22 36 7 37 53 5 3 59 44 23 8 3 15 4 3 59
AM Sungjae Im 19 4000 4000 750 330 130 0.00% 687 24 3 39 42 10 18 72 55 3 10 35 34 7 6 34 58 22 AM J.J. Spaun 20 6000 7500 900 450 180 -3.57% 685 25 29 12 19 55 26 11 5 58 60 58 14 26 36 51 13 40
AM Tommy Fleetwood 21 3500 3300 600 280 105 0.00% 685 19 25 24 20 19 9 12 17 23 63 45 17 4 10 28 48 64 AM Davis Thompson 22 5500 8500 1200 500 210 -6.45% 648 20 38 18 31 8 45 40 25 2 4 57 55 35 26 35 29 16
AM Akshay Bhatia 23 5000 7000 900 500 190 0.00% 647 21 30 25 23 17 22 9 31 68 52 28 11 29 21 12 58 21 PM Robert MacIntyre 24 5000 5500 850 350 150 -8.00% 593 36 37 10 29 27 63 59 19 33 54 44 39 5 23 33 32 72 PM Jason Day 25 5000 5853 800 400 155 -9.80% 558 32 34 26 16 38 15 42 60 24 17 25 52 21 29 42 53 38
PM Wyndham Clark 26 6000 8903 900 525 200 -10.00% 549 26 42 28 14 28 41 52 44 27 23 9 40 32 18 17 35 56
AM Taylor Pendrith 27 6600 9000 1600 650 250 -14.29% 543 39 27 27 33 50 42 22 10 60 66 21 32 19 41 44 34 66
PM Austin Eckroat 28 9000 25000 3300 1200 450 -9.09% 537 31 10 56 34 2 3 37 42 72 56 64 18 62 12 67 28 62 AM Keegan Bradley 29 6000 9000 900 500 210 -9.68% 528 22 47 33 47 7 28 32 40 28 24 62 21 30 7 62 10 48
PM Tony Finau 30 6500 8000 1600 650 235 -4.48% 522 35 14 50 35 54 30 4 7 29 48 72 31 33 50 55 19 54
PM J.T. Poston 31 5000 7000 950 500 190 0.00% 488 43 16 45 62 42 46 33 59 5 7 43 41 56 45 30 40 37 PM Ryo Hisatsune 32 8000 20000 3000 900 360 8.70% 486 41 53 11 53 21 21 38 15 51 64 34 26 60 39 60 52 51 PM Chris Kirk 33 9000 30000 3500 1400 400 0.00% 485 33 17 58 36 30 7 49 38 42 12 69 21 59 21 56 37 26
AM Sam Stevens 34 9000 25000 3000 900 400 -20.00% 482 23 43 46 18 3 23 51 16 50 46 53 29 49 8 22 70 8
AM Jordan Spieth 35 5000 4560 800 350 140 -4.17% 482 53 12 37 71 25 24 71 47 45 26 18 38 51 16 69 55 46
AM Adam Scott 36 8000 18523 2800 900 350 -11.11% 477 38 15 55 67 28 33 47 22 49 47 11 48 12 25 11 41 71 PM Min Woo Lee 37 6500 8692 850 550 200 -13.33% 467 54 36 15 30 40 55 57 43 4 40 31 50 27 44 61 67 44
PM Ryan Gerard 38 9000 17471 2500 900 325 -5.88% 465 34 64 14 70 31 47 26 62 37 35 26 27 33 47 53 14 10
AM Tom Hoge 39 6600 9000 1600 650 250 -2.86% 462 18 59 41 6 56 8 3 41 54 27 30 19 43 62 54 5 9
PM Will Zalatoris 40 6600 9000 1400 600 235 -1.49% 458 27 56 33 3 51 57 31 14 62 57 70 36 48 27 8 8 25
AM Nick Taylor 41 8000 12500 2000 750 280 13.16% 402 40 64 20 25 57 39 15 51 41 53 37 23 63 42 63 30 42 PM Justin Rose 42 6500 8000 850 550 210 -8.06% 396 56 21 43 61 34 16 63 32 48 51 42 61 31 40 53 39 69
PM Jacob Bridgeman 43 9000 9000 2000 800 300 -10.00% 392 44 58 23 50 63 54 54 23 7 25 4 57 55 57 27 30 33
PM Billy Horschel 44 8000 9000 2000 750 280 0.00% 375 28 44 62 39 22 31 44 39 30 43 10 37 37 27 10 64 11 PM Byeong Hun An 45 6600 8000 1400 650 250 -14.29% 360 29 54 54 65 20 50 64 12 44 36 63 24 28 5 20 27 19
PM Andrew Novak 46 8000 8000 2000 850 300 -5.00% 335 37 55 48 21 43 29 39 27 18 18 68 33 64 33 28 63 27 PM Stephan Jaeger 47 8000 20000 2500 850 325 -15.29% 334 47 61 29 51 39 56 29 61 15 31 33 25 58 49 66 49 30
AM Denny McCarthy 48 4500 6500 900 400 155 -1.96% 331 49 46 42 63 60 34 48 67 14 5 1 56 38 67 23 56 5 AM Matt Kuchar 49 9000 20000 2800 900 360 0.00% 322 67 31 35 66 61 58 46 72 22 45 12 63 40 46 64 72 23 PM Thomas Detry 50 8000 17730 2500 850 350 -15.56% 319 42 47 53 43 48 51 70 33 35 9 5 67 14 43 46 43 28
AM Eric Cole 51 9000 26159 3000 900 400 -14.00% 299 58 26 57 24 69 66 45 71 9 14 29 42 72 65 21 65 13 PM Harris English 53 6500 9000 1400 550 225 -4.62% 286 46 63 39 58 35 37 65 37 56 41 6 64 36 55 26 50 17 PM Joe Highsmith 52 9000 17500 2500 900 350 -3.78% 296 48 66 31 22 24 61 24 64 52 69 53 58 39 54 7 47 63 PM Patrick Rodgers 54 9000 16540 2500 850 375 -15.79% 283 45 45 59 40 45 59 61 30 26 37 32 59 68 52 3 54 3 AM Christiaan Bezuidenhout 55 9000 20000 3000 900 360 0.00% 275 50 35 64 60 49 44 43 54 12 19 3 53 41 59 48 42 41 AM Matt Fitzpatrick 56 7000 8000 1800 700 235 -7.46% 266 59 20 69 54 46 20 36 57 64 33 14 45 53 48 15 61 68
PM Maverick McNealy 57 6000 7500 900 450 185 -3.51% 247 57 52 44 56 44 52 35 25 36 50 17 70 22 58 58 68 31 PM Cam Davis 58 9000 30000 4000 1400 500 -8.33% 224 69 18 67 11 71 69 60 56 20 20 41 68 61 70 52 51 66
PM Cameron Young 59 9000 25000 4000 750 450 -9.09% 211 51 41 71 69 17 48 66 49 53 39 56 28 45 13 57 22 70
AM Matthieu Pavon 60 20000 75000 9000 3000 900 0.00% 205 52 40 72 57 32 27 28 50 71 71 22 35 70 51 38 38 58
PM Sahith Theegala 61 7000 8733 1600 650 230 0.00% 187 55 49 63 64 53 64 29 58 40 59 15 60 44 53 19 33 34
PM Rickie Fowler 62 8000 17742 2800 750 375 -24.21% 175 66 51 49 59 47 32 62 52 61 22 48 51 71 37 32 69 49
AM Sami Valimaki 63 9000 29331 4000 800 450 0.00% 152 63 71 38 49 67 40 56 35 69 72 39 65 64 69 13 45 15 AM Sam Burns 64 7000 9000 1500 700 250 -5.71% 139 60 50 66 38 41 43 53 65 47 68 2 54 17 61 31 70 60
PM Nick Dunlap 65 9000 50000 7500 2500 900 -47.50% 124 61 57 61 4 72 70 40 66 39 65 26 72 69 72 68 44 7 AM Brian Campbell 66 9000 25000 3500 800 400 60.00% 109 62 68 52 48 68 36 49 70 11 6 20 66 52 71 54 62 18
PM Mackenzie Hughes 67 9000 20000 2500 800 325 -10.59% 97 64 69 51 45 58 62 55 69 8 32 6 69 46 60 43 46 61 PM Gary Woodland 68 9000 28733 3000 900 400 -20.00% 76 72 67 47 44 64 67 68 27 70 70 60 47 66 56 59 66 43 AM Adam Hadwin 69 9000 45000 5000 1600 550 -7.69% 38 70 60 65 55 65 60 58 68 38 30 47 62 47 68 50 36 57 PM Karl Vilips 70 8000 45000 7000 2800 900 -35.00% 19 68 72 60 72 62 72 21 19 57 67 67 46 67 65 71 24 50
PM Max Greyserman 71 9000 23690 3300 900 400 -20.00% 10 65 70 68 10 66 68 67 36 63 61 12 44 42 64 36 60 65 AM Max Homa 72 8000 9000 2500 900 300 -17.50% 1 71 62 70 37 70 71 69 63 13 49 52 71 54 63 49 57 32
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Wave Data & Projections
Wave RBC Heritage Rank Upside Safety FanDuel DraftKings Difference Ownership
Overall Model Score
S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S
Stats Course History Recent Form
Weighted Proximities SG OTT Less Than Driver
Good Drive % Less Than Driver No Easy Approach
SG Approach Small Greens GIR % Difficult GIR
SG ARG No Difficult ARG
ARG Proximity
SG Putting Overseed/Bit Bermuda
SG Ball Striking Short Courses
SG Total Strong Fields L1Y
SG OTT Difficult OTT
Par 3 Scoring Difficult
SG Approach L18M
Scrambling L6M No Difficult
100.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 10.0% 13.0% 7.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 13.0% 9.0%
AM Scottie Scheffler 1 1 2 $14,000 $13,100 $900 36.0% 1000 1 1 2 1 1 12 1 1 21 2 49 1 1 1 2 1 1 AM Russell Henley 2 2 3 $10,600 $9,700 $900 17.4% 976 2 4 3 9 13 1 18 8 6 1 8 8 10 17 1 12 53 PM Collin Morikawa 3 3 1 $12,200 $10,900 $1,300 23.9% 970 3 6 1 32 4 2 14 53 10 11 51 7 2 2 5 6 19
Golfer Tables & Salary Data
Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev
FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry DraftKings Entry DraftKings Entry
Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev
FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry DraftKings Entry FanDuel Entry
Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev
FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry
Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev
DraftKings Entry DraftKings Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry
Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev
FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry
Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev Golfer Salary Own Exp Lev
FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry FanDuel Entry
Golfer Ownership Exposure Exposure Leverage Money Money Exposure Money Leverage
Scottie Scheffler 36.0% 0.0% -36.0% $0 0.0% -36.0%
Russell Henley 17.4% 0.0% -17.4% $0 0.0% -17.4%
Collin Morikawa 23.9% 0.0% -23.9% $0 0.0% -23.9%
Corey Conners 13.4% 0.0% -13.4% $0 0.0% -13.4%
Patrick Cantlay 21.9% 0.0% -21.9% $0 0.0% -21.9%
Bud Cauley 9.1% 0.0% -9.1% $0 0.0% -9.1%
Sepp Straka 14.4% 0.0% -14.4% $0 0.0% -14.4%
Justin Thomas 16.5% 0.0% -16.5% $0 0.0% -16.5%
Viktor Hovland 12.4% 0.0% -12.4% $0 0.0% -12.4%
Shane Lowry 11.4% 0.0% -11.4% $0 0.0% -11.4%
Brian Harman 9.3% 0.0% -9.3% $0 0.0% -9.3%
Aaron Rai 12.9% 0.0% -12.9% $0 0.0% -12.9%
Ludvig Aberg 16.3% 0.0% -16.3% $0 0.0% -16.3%
Daniel Berger 13.6% 0.0% -13.6% $0 0.0% -13.6%
Lucas Glover 9.3% 0.0% -9.3% $0 0.0% -9.3%
Michael Kim 5.7% 0.0% -5.7% $0 0.0% -5.7%
Si Woo Kim 6.0% 0.0% -6.0% $0 0.0% -6.0%
Xander Schauffele 18.3% 0.0% -18.3% $0 0.0% -18.3%
Sungjae Im 11.9% 0.0% -11.9% $0 0.0% -11.9%
J.J. Spaun 6.5% 0.0% -6.5% $0 0.0% -6.5%
Tommy Fleetwood 12.9% 0.0% -12.9% $0 0.0% -12.9%
Davis Thompson 7.3% 0.0% -7.3% $0 0.0% -7.3%
Akshay Bhatia 9.0% 0.0% -9.0% $0 0.0% -9.0%...
Wave Golfer Rank
Overall Rank
L12 L20 L36 L36 L36 L36 L36 L36 L36 L36 L36 L36 L36 L20 L20 L20 L20 L20 L20 L20 L20 L20 L20 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12 L12
Last 12 Last 20 Last 36 SG Total L36 SG OTT L36 SG Approach L36 SG ARG L36 SG Putting L36 Good Drive % L36 GIR % L36 Scrambling L36 BoB % L36 Par 3 Scoring L36 SG Total L20 SG OTT L20 SG Approach L20 SG ARG L20 SG Putting L20 Good Drive % L20 GIR % L20 Scrambling L20 BoB % L20 Par 3 Scoring L20 SG Total L12 SG OTT L12 SG Approach L12 SG ARG L12 SG Putting L12 Good Drive % L12 GIR % L12 Scrambling L12 BoB % L12 Par 3 Scoring L12
100.0% 20.0% 30.0% 50.0% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 11.0 3.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 12.0 12.0 16.0 11.0 3.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 5.0%
AM Scottie Scheffler 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 9 35 20 25 8 2 15 33 1 2 18 3 34 14 5 1 22 18 1 10 12 54 11 11 3 1 10 2 AM Russell Henley 3 3 3 4 3 4 45 15 2 9 3 1 43 3 4 4 28 32 1 9 4 1 28 11 3 5 21 24 1 31 7 1 37 10 6
PM Collin Morikawa 1 1 1 2 1 2 7 3 20 48 2 10 11 1 1 3 8 2 26 54 3 14 15 7 1 3 2 2 8 62 7 10 17 13 3 AM Corey Conners 7 7 6 3 17 17 4 40 34 50 22 12 14 57 45 2 1 22 4 24 5 6 2 43 40 7 3 26 18 47 6 4 7 44 56
AM Patrick Cantlay 13 13 21 20 10 16 25 21 31 42 12 8 57 7 56 17 22 8 56 29 15 12 38 55 52 25 11 14 59 49 12 8 33 52 52 AM Bud Cauley 4 4 5 7 5 11 12 13 24 41 13 6 16 22 22 7 19 6 40 16 32 21 30 2 28 2 6 7 46 12 15 30 38 3 24 AM Sepp Straka 9 9 17 19 4 3 29 2 41 29 15 4 27 6 6 27 36 10 36 45 35 11 52 22 14 24 41 8 30 36 39 23 42 23 5 AM Justin Thomas 19 19 32 35 12 5 53 4 16 16 37 27 59 2 48 13 45 11 34 26 63 48 59 14 54 14 55 25 22 4 68 52 55 5 9
AM Viktor Hovland 21 21 28 22 26 40 41 6 66 63 24 23 64 7 8 38 38 7 70 56 10 14 50 3 22 28 54 6 66 46 15 20 58 8 9
AM Shane Lowry 5 5 10 6 8 8 32 5 26 26 32 41 6 31 12 6 33 1 21 46 32 24 8 30 6 22 14 3 36 64 24 23 15 33 17 PM Brian Harman 30 30 45 32 25 34 46 27 29 33 28 20 19 59 23 33 55 19 35 37 26 24 62 20 31 40 35 40 34 29 26 41 47 44 52 PM Aaron Rai 52 52 52 69 9 56 49 7 37 5 19 61 26 30 56 57 50
— Notes: This section provides a snapshot of the wave-based rankings, ownership, and model scores used for comparisons across players. The full dataset includes deep proximity metrics, distance to greens, scrambling, and approach data across multiple timeframes (Last 12, Last 20, Last 36) as shown in the attached tables and charts. The data above is a subset intended for quick reference and cross-checking with the more comprehensive tables in the full report.
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Notes & Methodology
- The data above is drawn from multiple stat strands including SG (Strokes Gained) components, proximity metrics, driving distance, greens in regulation (GIR), scrambling, and par-3 scoring.
- The Wave sections synthesize course history, recent form, and weighted proximities to assign a Rank and Model Score per golfer.
- Ownership sections show estimated ownership percentages for FanDuel and DraftKings with a relative money exposure polarity (positive/negative) for betting context.
- All figures are presented as-is from the source dataset and are intended for analytical review and betting strategy planning.
References & Data Notes
- All data points reflect the latest published inputs as of 2025-04-17.
- For reproducibility, see the accompanying CSV exports and the original tables embedded in the source document.